Category Archives: update

Sinabung Claims More Lives

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Sadly I awoke this morning to the news Mount Sinabung in Northern Sumatra, Indonesia had claimed the lives of three farmers working in the fields by the Gembar Village. This figure has since risen to 7 and is feared to continue to rise with several more critically injured and the Red Cross and army looking for further victims.

Mount Sinabung has been in a near constant state of eruption since late 2013. Pyroclastic flows sweep down its flanks on a regular basis which has lead to 4 km exclusion zone being enforced around the summit.  On February 1st 2014 people were killed by one such pyroclastic flows.

About 10,000 people have been displaced by activity at the volcano which has been on the highest state of alert for well over a year. Sadly the volcano is positioned in a relatively poor and over populated area of the world, many people have little choice but to continue to farm on the volcanoes fertile flanks. Officials have struggled to keep the people to stick the ‘red’ exclusion zones and it is unclear how many people were on the mountain at the time of the recent activity.

Head of the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) Willem Rampangilei has instructed Karo Regent to take quick measures to vacate the red zones (Gamber village, Simpang Empat district and Karo Regency) but they know that this is easier said then done. The pyroclastic flows caused by partial collapses of the growing lava dome occurred in a series at 14:28, 15:08 and 16:39 local time on Saturday. Rescue attempts went through the night and in to Sunday morning. An ash column remained for hours, towering over the area darkening the skys and hampering the search operation.

The pyroclastic flow captured here to the left happened only a week ago on May 16th showing the power and regularity of such activity. On May 9th a lahar swept through  Kutambaru near the Lau Barus River killing 1 and leaving one person still missing now also presumed dead.

Sinabung lay silently for nearly 400 year until springing back to life back in 2010. It has now killed at least 25 people since its rousing. Volcanism on the island of Sumatra is caused by the subduction of the Indo-Australian plate beneath the Eurasian plate along the Sunda Arc which creates the andesitic-dacitic composition magmas which are prone to such explosive activity. Sinabung sits just 25 miles north-east of the Toba Super Volcano caused by the same tectonic motion.

 

Figures 1 and 2; posted to Facebook by SkyAlert.

Figure 3; http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/sinabung/news.html

 

Today in Geological History; April 25th – Nepal Earthquake

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Today marks the one year anniversary of the Nepal Earthquake, sometimes referred to as the Gorka Earthquake where over 8000 people lost their lives. The initial quake, which struck approximately 85 miles west of the capital city, Kathmandu and registered at a magnitude 7.8. The shallow depth of the foci, just 8.2 km, lead to violent shaking which hit the maximum of IX on the Mercalli Intensity Scale.

Figure 1. Probably one of the most iconic pictures showing the rubble which was once a UNESCO world heritage site in Bhaktapur

The main earthquake struck at 11.56 am local time and was followed by a magnitude 6.6 just 34 minutes later. Aftershocks continued every 15-30 minutes for days with many hitting over Mg 4.5 hampering rescue efforts. Then on May 12th an earthquake struck further east along the fault line registering at Mg 7.3 killing an extra 218 people.

The Indian plate is currently crashing in to the Eurasian plate at a rapid rate of 45 mm per year, this is the same motion which has given rise to our planets highest mountains; the Himalayas.

As the Indian plate underthrusts the Eurasian plate it can get stuck leading to build up of stresses in areas which are relieved in the motion of an earthquake. Great Kashmir Earthquake of 2005 which claimed the lives of 87,000 people was  and the 1833 Kathmandu earthquakes were both created by the same build up of stress due to the plate collision.

The earthquake was felt over a vast area spanning 5 countries, but it was rural highland areas of Nepal which were worst affected. Landslide caused some of the worst damage. The Langtang Valley was hit by the largest single loss of life with a avalanche nearly 3 km wide sweeping down and burring an entire village. Smaller settlements on the outskirts of Langtang, such as Chyamki, Thangsyap, and Mundu were also buried. It is thought over 300 people died in the avalanche. The onset of the monsoon season soon after the earthquake killed even more people as the unstable ground was unable to hold up under the heavey rains causing further landslides.

Figure 3. Collapse houses in Sankhu, on the outskirts of Kathmandu

The earthquake also set in motion the deadliest disaster on Mount Everest since it was first conquered by Edmund Hillary in 1953. Everest is 220 km east of the earthquakes epicenter and was in the midst of its peak climbing season. Nearly a thousand people where on or around the worlds highest mountain at the time of the earthquake, including 359 climbers at Base Camp. Avalanches were triggered in several locations including one which originated on the nearby peak of Pumori which swept through South Base Camp through to Khumbu Icefall. 19 bodies were recovered from South Base Camp along with 61 stranded climbers. On 27 April, National Geographic reported the total killed on Everest was 24 although this figure has not been confirmed.

One year on Nepal is still struggling to recover. Thousands of homes were destroyed across many districts of the country, with entire villages flattened, especially those near the epicenter. 90% of the Napalese army were deployed to the region and within a week millions of pounds in aid arrived in aid from accross the globle, but after the initial rescue and clean up that appears to be the end of “relief”.

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Table 1. Number of fatalities by county.

Rubble has been cleared and unstable buildings torn down, but virtually none of the 800,000 destroyed buildings have been rebuilt. According to the Red Cross over 4 million people are living in sub-standard temporary shelter.

With aftershocks still continuing and lack of outside aid it is fear life in the region will never fully recover. Nepal has always been known to be at great risk from tectonic activity in 2013, in an interview with seismologist Vinod Kumar Gaur, The Hindu quoted him as saying, “Calculations show that there is sufficient accumulated energy [in the Main Frontal Thrust], now to produce an 8 magnitude earthquake. I cannot say when. It may not happen tomorrow, but it could possibly happen sometime this century, or wait longer to produce a much larger one.”

Figure 4; The rescue workers ranged from locals to internation aid.

The Nepal earthquake was another stunning example of how some of the poorest countries fair the worst in natural disasters. With little or no building regulations cities like Kathmandu are left exposed and easily torn down by even relatively moderate quakes.

It could be generations before rebuilding truely begins in the region affected by the April 25th earthquake hopefully when the time comes lessons will be learnt and better measures be put in place.

 

Figure 1; http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/apr/26/nepal-earthquake-death-toll-exceeds-1500-rolling-report

Figure 2; http://reliefweb.int/map/nepal/nepal-epicenter-earthquake-25-april-2015

Figure 3; http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nepal-earthquake-you-cant-rule-out-more-earthquakes-come-1500883

Figure 4; http://abcnews.go.com/International/americans-nepal-describe-massive-earthquake-devastating-aftermath/story?id=30580024

Table 1; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2015_Nepal_earthquake

Kyushu Earthquake, Mt Aso and the Relationship between Volcanoes and Earthquakes.

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In the past week the Japanese Island of Kysushu has be ravaged by earthquakes.

2016-04-16Japan is a highly seismic area with noticeable quakes in some areas occurring nearly daily.  But things began to escalate for the Kyushu region on Thursday night when a magnitude 6.5 quake brought several buildings down. As rescue efforts began the region had two more huge after shocks during the night, one over Mg 6 and the other > Mg 5. By midday Friday the death toll stood at 9 with over 800 injured and although the aftershocks kept coming many >Mg 4 people were still being pulled from the rubble. Sadly these events were quite possibly a precursor to something larger.

At 01.25 local time (15.25 GMT) a Mg 7.3 struck just north of Kumamoto just kilometers from the large earthquakes which had already occurred. Much of the seismicity in the Kyushu region is related to the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate at great depth. However this series of earthquakes have occurred at very shallow depths several hundred kilometers northwest of the Ryukyu Trench. They have been cause by strike-slip faulting within the Eurasian plate.

Quake damaged houses in Kumamoto, Japan (16 April 2016)So far 22 more people have been reported dead but this is expected to rise in the coming days with at least 80 people known to betrapped in rubble. 11 of which are trapped in a Tokai university apartment in the town of Minami Aso.

 

The shallowness of the earthquakes means damage to the surface is high and it is not just collapsing building which are a hazard. People have fled the area down stream of a dam which collapsed soon after the earthquake. Landslides in the area have taken out roads and power lines and with heavy rain anticipated over the coming days JMA have advised mudslides will be a huge problem for rescuers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The seismic problems of Kyushu may have also set in motion another geohazard in the form of Mt Aso. Yesterday one of my favorite volcanology bloggers Eric Klemetti tweeted “Quite a few volcanoes on Kyushu and these earthquakes have been centered near Unzen, Aso, Kirishima. This is NOT to say these earthquakes will trigger any eruptions, but could be worth watching over the next year.” Several hours late JMA reported a small scale eruption at Aso. Smoke plumes have migrated 100 meters above the summit and it is not yet clear if the activity is magmatic (caused by movement of magma towards the surface) or phreatic (steam explosion caused by heating of groundwater).

Eruptions and earthquakes do not always come hand in hand but each one can contribute to the other or not at all depending on the circumstances. One indication a volcano is about to erupt is volcanic tremors; these low frequency earthquakes are usually caused by the migration of magma or changes to magma chamber. Although they are rarely higher than a magnitude 4. On the other side large earth quakes can cause faulting in bed rock which allows magma to exploit a new weakness and find a path to the surface it previously could not intrude on. The same can happen for ground water with faulting caused by a quake allowing it to seep in to geothermal areas it previously did not have access to due to the impermeability of the rock. When earthquakes hit volcanic regions volcano observatories always keep a closer eye on vulnerable or highly active volcanoes as a precaution but it is not always needed.

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The Aso Caldera complex has one of the world’s largest calderas. It is comprised of a 25 km north-south by 18 km east-west Caldera and a central cone group comprised of Mt. Neko, Mt. Taka, Mt. Naka, Mt. Eboshi, and Mt. Kishima. Mt Naka where the eruption has just taken place is the most active with its most recent eruption taking place last October. Although much of Aso’s activity in the past century has been relatively small it has had a violent history with at least 4 VEI 7 events in the past 300,000 years.

It’s is not clear whether the earthquakes in the past few days did trigger the current current eruption but JMA are keeping a close eye on the situation and I will update this page as I know more.

 

 

Figure 1. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

Figure 2; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36061657

Figure 3; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-earthquakes-dozens-reported-dead-injured-second-quake-two-days-a6986931.html

Figure 4; http://mashable.com/2016/04/15/japan-earthquake-landslide-photos/

Today in Geological History; March 11th – Tōhoku Earthquake & Tsunami

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article-0-0D924D9F000005DC-785_964x591.jpgI am pretty sure I have covered this event before but seeing as today marks the 5 year anniversary of one of the worst natural disasters in the past decade I thought it deserves a much more in depth look. The events of March 11th destroyed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and claimed the lives of nearly 20,000. For me, it opened my eyes to a world of geohazards and mad me realized this was something I wanted to study and understand so such loss of life would not happen again.

There are three elements to the events of March 11th that I am going to look at here; the earthquake, the tsunami and the Fukushima power plant. Each aspect a huge disaster in on there own but interlinked as they were caused devastation for Japan. 

The Earthquake

Instrumental Intensity Image

Japan is a volcanic island which stretches along where the North American, Pacific, Eurasian and Philippine plates all collide at different points. It is a part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, the world’s most tectonically active area. Practically all of our planets largest and most destructive earthquakes occur along the ring, one of which rocked the east coast of Japan at 2.46 pm JST (5.46am UTC) on March 11th 2011.

The magnitude 9 quake struck at the shallow depth of just 32 km roughly 70 km off the Oshika Peninsular. The area was already alert to seismic activity as several large foreshocks had occurred in the run up including a Mg 7.2 on March 9th and followed by three more above a Mg 6. Of course no one knew these were precursors to something much larger…

Initial reports from JMA and USGS put the March 11th quake at a 7.9 but this had risen first to a 8.8 and then to a 9 before most of the seismic waves had even hit Tokyo 373 km away. Luckily thanks to Japans intense seismic network the countries capital had at least 80 seconds warning before they felt the strong shaking.

The megathrust earthquake occurred where the Pacific Plate subducts beneath the North America Plate. The Pacific Plate moves at a relative speed of roughly 9 mm per year but it is not a smooth decent, tension can build and release in a large snap causing an earthquake. On March 11th this happened in epic style causing over ~50 meters of displacement near the Japan Trench which caused the tsunami which swept across the Sendai planes. The earthquake was so powerful that up to 1.69 meters of co-seismic deformation has permanently altered our planet and affected the Earths tilt shaving 1.8 microseconds of the day (not that we would ever notice!)

It was the forth largest earthquake ever recorded and the largest ever to strike Japan.

The Tsunami 

The displacement on the sea bed in turn caused a huge displacement of water in the Pacific ocean its self. Across a 180 km stretch there was recorded up thrust of 6-8 meters. Above the rupture the tsunami waves would have looked like no more than ripples on the surface radiating out across the ocean. It is as the waves reach the continental shelf and the water is forced upwards that they begin to take on their characteristic ‘wall of water’ appearance.
At its maximum height (recorded at Miyako, Iwate) the waves hit 40.5 m high (133 ft). The Pacific has the most comprehensive tsunami warning systems in the world but even this gave only about 15 minutes warning from the earthquake to waves hitting the coast line. Travelling at speeds up to 500 mph the water surged up to 6 miles (10 km) inland.

Honshu earthquake tsunami travel times

It was not just Japan which felt the repercussions of the event. Tsunami waves propagated out through out the entire Pacific. 11,000 miles away the coast of Chile experienced waves in excess of 2 meters along with most of the America west coast right up through to the Aleutian Islands and as far south as Antarctica where it broke chunks off the Sulzberger Ice Shelf

An estimated 5 million tonnes of debris began washing up on shore lines across the Pacific in the months and even years after the initial Earthquake. In April 2013 a 20 ft boat ran aground in California and was later identified as belonging to the marine sciences program at Takata High School, Japan. NOAA have kept tracks and aimed to clear as much of the debris as possible to minimize risk to ships and wild life but the operation can take more than a decade.

Fukushima

The melt down at the Fukushima was the worst nuclear disaster the world has seen since Chernobyl in 1986.

The plant ran by TEPCO had 3 of its 6 units shut down for inspection when the earthquake struck. Units 1, 2 and 3 then under went automatic shutdown cutting off power. 50 minutes later the waves up to 15 meters high breached the measly 5.7 meters seawalls and flooded the basements of the turbine buildings and disabling the emergency generators. The lack of power meant the cooling systems of the 3 active reactors failed and eventually the heat caused by decay caused the containers to burst leaking radioactive material.

It was classified a Level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) and its was the way the event was handled from the very beginning my TEPCO which saw the escalation in the threat. Approximately 15 PBq of caesium-137 was released along with some 500 PBq of iodine-131, luckily all the failed reactors were in concrete containment vessels, which limited the release of strontium-90, americium-241 and plutonium.

Dozens of vehicles lie abandoned and covered in overgrown bushes along what was once a stretch of road near the power plantNo deaths were caused by the events or short term radiation exposure but it is thought people in the area worst hit will have a slightly higher risk of developing certain cancers in the future. Now 5 years on there is still a 12.5 km is still in place with thousands of people still exiled from their homes. The wild has reclaimed the land making it look like a scene from an apocalyptic film.

It could be centuries before the area is truly deemed safe to live on again.

Pre-Warning; This has happened before

Japan is no stranger to tsunamis; the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes (Mg 8.5 and 8.4 respectively) also brought deadly waves. For this reason tsunami barriers have been constructed both on and off shore, trees were planted along the coastline, vertical evacuation buildings were built to the highest standards and regular evacuation training was introduced. But none of these were built to with stand the sheer force of a tsunami of this magnitude.

In 2001 a team from Tohoku University published an article in Journal of Natural Disaster predicting such an event occurring every 800-1100 years. Within the Sendai Plain there is evidence of at least 3 major tsunami deposits all left within the past 3000 years. On July 9th 869 BC what is believed to be a magnitude 8-9 earthquake occurred off the coast of Sanriku causing a major tsunami which left deposits up to 4 km inland. So given that we knew an event like this had occurred before, why was Japan not better prepared for March 11th?

Sadly human nature does not always listen to the reason of science. It is often easier to believe ‘it won’t happen in my life time’ and then brush the threat under the carpet for future generations. The problem is it does not matter how much we study the mechanics of our planet we are still no where near being able to predict these disasters with any degree of accuracy meaning preparation is our best defence.

Aftermath

A report issued by the Japanese government in May 2015 claimed the events of March 11th 2011 caused $300 billion dollars. A confirmed 15,894 people lost their lives, 2,562 people are still unaccounted for.

5 years on the area is yet to recover. An estimated 174,000 are still displaced mainly due to the exclusion zone still heavily in place around the Fukushima plant. Soon as the initial rescue operation was completed the Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group was assembled. A team of natural scientists and engineers from 63 universities world wide set out to understand what made this tsunami so powerful and how we can protect our selves from further events. By the end of 2011 the Japanese government had passed laws to establish “tsunami-safe cities” and pledged billions of dollars to an intense 5 year clean up operation. It was clearly a bigger job than they originally thought….

Today there are still over 60,000 people living in temporary accommodation.For residents once living near the Fukushima power plant they will probably never return to there own homes. Sendai is still trying to recover from the tragic events but also now living in fear that this could occur again.

It is for this reason I choose to go in to studying geoscience. We all live at the mercy of our planet and most of us never even consider the risk the land beneath our feet poses. Prediction, preparation and knowledge can save lives and this is what I one day want to help with.

 

Figure 1; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1365318/Japan-earthquake-tsunami-The-moment-mother-nature-engulfed-nation.html

Figure 2; http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/global/shake/c0001xgp/

Figure 3; http://minookatap.com/2011/08/22/japan-book-club-the-big-wave-5/

Figure 4; http://www.livescience.com/39110-japan-2011-earthquake-tsunami-facts.html

Figure 5; https://7plaguesofgod.wordpress.com/2011-tsunami-japan/

Figure6; http://vassarchronicle.com/section/politics/foreign-affairs/lack-of-regulation-fukushima-meltdown/

Figure 7; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3263714/Destroyed-man-reclaimed-nature-Amazing-images-reveal-exclusion-zone-Fukushima-abandoned-overgrown-wilderness.html

 

 

 

Eruptions Update

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Turrialba

Costa Rica’s Turrialba has been rumbling for about a week now and at 9pm UTC Monday 4th it gave a moderate eruption which has coated as far as the country’s capital, San Jose, in ash 60km away. An ash column stood at just 2.5 km in from the eruption which lasted little over half an hour. The Juan Santamaría International Airport was closed for under 12 hours as staff worked through to clear the run way of ash, the aviation code has since been lowered and flights have resumed normal operation. When Turrialba started erupting back in March it left the airport closed for days, luckily this seems to be a much smaller eruption.

Turrialba, Costa Rica

Bulusan

Bulusan in the Philipeans let off a small phreatic eruption at 1.30 local time on Friday 1st May. The eruption which only lasted 5 minutes was followed by 40 volcanic tremors. Philvolcs have left the alert at 0 with it belived further activity is unlikely but the 4 km permanent danger zone is being kept in place. Local residents have also been advised to be watchfull of lahars and sediment heavey stream flows due to the heavy rain in region.

Hakone

JMA are sending a team to look in to increased seismicity in the Hakone hot springs region. The earthquakes are believed to volcanic tremors which have been increasing at a shallow depth since late April. Inflation of the volcanic edifice is also being looked into. Alert remains low.

 

 

Links Update

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Hi just a quick note to say I have been working on my Links page this morning, adding more sites that you guys may find helpful/interesting. Also I have categorised the page in to the following sections so if you need some thing specific it is easier to find;

  • General Geology Resources
  • Volcano Observatories, VAAC’s and Meteorological Offices
  • Science News and Blogs
  • Education and expeditions

 

If any of you have any more sites that you think are relevant feel free to comment or email the admin at geologicallyspeaking@icloud.com

 

Eruption Update

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I may have bee quiet on eruption updates lately but that is far from meaning our restless Earth has been quiet. Here is some of the recent updates.

Kilauea 

As Kilauea has been in a constant state of eruption since 1983, some don’t consider changes in activity as news. However as the June 27th lava showed us this relatively calm giant still poses a threat to people.

USGS reports suggest that the summit is still inflating; 7.5 microradians were recorded in the past week alone. Over the weekend we saw rapid filling of the Halema’uma’u crater from a depth of 90 ft from the crater rim to within 10 ft by Sunday lunch time. Yesterday (April 29th) the webcam observed small explosions and spattering with rock falls as the crater began to overflow.

Seismicity remains at an increased level towards the summit and East rift zone where wide spread breakouts from the eruption site are active as close as 8 km of Pu’u ‘O’o. There has be net inflation of Pu’u ‘O’o over the past week but not as significant as at the summit. As the June 27th Lava flows nears its 1 year anniversary incandesance indicates that surface flows remain active northeast of Pu’u ‘O’o.

Calbuco

Although the more explosive phase of the eruption seems to have died down, there are still high ash emissions and flight disruption is still an issue across both Chile and Argintina with ash plumes trailing to the north and south east at just over 1.5 km high. The 20 km exclusion zone is still inplace however it is belived that some people have returned to their homes within the area with maximum displaced 6,514 at the begining of this week. Seismicity has since declinded but it is still under observation.

Sinabung

Collapse of the lava dome on April 28th caused a pyroclastic flow to surge down the flanks. Luckily exclusion zones are still in place from activity over the past few months. The Darwin VAAC  said an ash columb exceeds 14,000 ft although satalitte confirmation has not been possible due to cloud coverage.

Aira

JMA reported that 29 explosions from Showa Crater at Aira Caldera’s Sakurajima volcano ejected tephra as far as 1,300 m during 20-24 April. Nine of the explosions generated ash plumes that rose 3 km above the crater rim; one explosion, on 24 April, produced an ash plume that rose 4 km. Incandescence from the crater was visible on one night. The Alert Level remained at 3 (on a scale of 1-5). Based on JMA notices, the Tokyo VAAC reported that explosions during 22-28 April generated plumes which rose to altitudes of 1.5-4.9 km and drifted S, SE, E, NE, and N.

Tungurahua

Moderate-to-high seismic activity at Tungurahua during 22-28 April, characterized by long-period events, tremor, and explosions. On 28 April an emission with a minor ash content rose 3 km and drifted W. Roaring was noted and lahars descended the La Pampa (NW) and Rea drainages.

Popocatepetl

During 22-28 April the seismic network at Popocatépetl recorded 25-91 daily emissions mostly consisting of water vapor and gas. Cloud cover sometimes prevented observations of the crater, although gas plumes and nighttime crater incandescence were noted daily. On 22 April an explosion at 01.21 produced diffuse gas and water vapor emissions. Explosions at 16.43 and 17.58 local time generated ash plumes. The Alert Level remained at Yellow, Phase Two.

Krakatoa

PVMBG reported that during 1 March-21 April diffuse white plumes rose 25-50 m above Anak Krakatau, although foggy weather often prevented observations. Seismicity continued to be dominated by shallow and deep volcanic earthquakes, as well as signals indicating emissions. The Alert Level remained at .

Sheveluch

During 17-24 April the lava dome extrusion onto Sheveluch’s N flank was accompanied by incandescence, hot block avalanches, and fumerolic activity. A thermal anomaly was detected during 16-18 and 23 April; cloud cover obscured views on the other days. The aviation code remained at Orange.

Figure 1; http://fineartamerica.com/featured/halemaumau-by-moonlight-grant-kaye.html

Figure 2; http://news.yahoo.com/image-asia-pyroclastic-flows-erupt-mount-sinabung-121702289.html