Category Archives: Sinabung

Sinabung Claims More Lives

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Sadly I awoke this morning to the news Mount Sinabung in Northern Sumatra, Indonesia had claimed the lives of three farmers working in the fields by the Gembar Village. This figure has since risen to 7 and is feared to continue to rise with several more critically injured and the Red Cross and army looking for further victims.

Mount Sinabung has been in a near constant state of eruption since late 2013. Pyroclastic flows sweep down its flanks on a regular basis which has lead to 4 km exclusion zone being enforced around the summit.  On February 1st 2014 people were killed by one such pyroclastic flows.

About 10,000 people have been displaced by activity at the volcano which has been on the highest state of alert for well over a year. Sadly the volcano is positioned in a relatively poor and over populated area of the world, many people have little choice but to continue to farm on the volcanoes fertile flanks. Officials have struggled to keep the people to stick the ‘red’ exclusion zones and it is unclear how many people were on the mountain at the time of the recent activity.

Head of the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) Willem Rampangilei has instructed Karo Regent to take quick measures to vacate the red zones (Gamber village, Simpang Empat district and Karo Regency) but they know that this is easier said then done. The pyroclastic flows caused by partial collapses of the growing lava dome occurred in a series at 14:28, 15:08 and 16:39 local time on Saturday. Rescue attempts went through the night and in to Sunday morning. An ash column remained for hours, towering over the area darkening the skys and hampering the search operation.

The pyroclastic flow captured here to the left happened only a week ago on May 16th showing the power and regularity of such activity. On May 9th a lahar swept through  Kutambaru near the Lau Barus River killing 1 and leaving one person still missing now also presumed dead.

Sinabung lay silently for nearly 400 year until springing back to life back in 2010. It has now killed at least 25 people since its rousing. Volcanism on the island of Sumatra is caused by the subduction of the Indo-Australian plate beneath the Eurasian plate along the Sunda Arc which creates the andesitic-dacitic composition magmas which are prone to such explosive activity. Sinabung sits just 25 miles north-east of the Toba Super Volcano caused by the same tectonic motion.

 

Figures 1 and 2; posted to Facebook by SkyAlert.

Figure 3; http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/sinabung/news.html

 

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Eruption Update

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I may have bee quiet on eruption updates lately but that is far from meaning our restless Earth has been quiet. Here is some of the recent updates.

Kilauea 

As Kilauea has been in a constant state of eruption since 1983, some don’t consider changes in activity as news. However as the June 27th lava showed us this relatively calm giant still poses a threat to people.

USGS reports suggest that the summit is still inflating; 7.5 microradians were recorded in the past week alone. Over the weekend we saw rapid filling of the Halema’uma’u crater from a depth of 90 ft from the crater rim to within 10 ft by Sunday lunch time. Yesterday (April 29th) the webcam observed small explosions and spattering with rock falls as the crater began to overflow.

Seismicity remains at an increased level towards the summit and East rift zone where wide spread breakouts from the eruption site are active as close as 8 km of Pu’u ‘O’o. There has be net inflation of Pu’u ‘O’o over the past week but not as significant as at the summit. As the June 27th Lava flows nears its 1 year anniversary incandesance indicates that surface flows remain active northeast of Pu’u ‘O’o.

Calbuco

Although the more explosive phase of the eruption seems to have died down, there are still high ash emissions and flight disruption is still an issue across both Chile and Argintina with ash plumes trailing to the north and south east at just over 1.5 km high. The 20 km exclusion zone is still inplace however it is belived that some people have returned to their homes within the area with maximum displaced 6,514 at the begining of this week. Seismicity has since declinded but it is still under observation.

Sinabung

Collapse of the lava dome on April 28th caused a pyroclastic flow to surge down the flanks. Luckily exclusion zones are still in place from activity over the past few months. The Darwin VAAC  said an ash columb exceeds 14,000 ft although satalitte confirmation has not been possible due to cloud coverage.

Aira

JMA reported that 29 explosions from Showa Crater at Aira Caldera’s Sakurajima volcano ejected tephra as far as 1,300 m during 20-24 April. Nine of the explosions generated ash plumes that rose 3 km above the crater rim; one explosion, on 24 April, produced an ash plume that rose 4 km. Incandescence from the crater was visible on one night. The Alert Level remained at 3 (on a scale of 1-5). Based on JMA notices, the Tokyo VAAC reported that explosions during 22-28 April generated plumes which rose to altitudes of 1.5-4.9 km and drifted S, SE, E, NE, and N.

Tungurahua

Moderate-to-high seismic activity at Tungurahua during 22-28 April, characterized by long-period events, tremor, and explosions. On 28 April an emission with a minor ash content rose 3 km and drifted W. Roaring was noted and lahars descended the La Pampa (NW) and Rea drainages.

Popocatepetl

During 22-28 April the seismic network at Popocatépetl recorded 25-91 daily emissions mostly consisting of water vapor and gas. Cloud cover sometimes prevented observations of the crater, although gas plumes and nighttime crater incandescence were noted daily. On 22 April an explosion at 01.21 produced diffuse gas and water vapor emissions. Explosions at 16.43 and 17.58 local time generated ash plumes. The Alert Level remained at Yellow, Phase Two.

Krakatoa

PVMBG reported that during 1 March-21 April diffuse white plumes rose 25-50 m above Anak Krakatau, although foggy weather often prevented observations. Seismicity continued to be dominated by shallow and deep volcanic earthquakes, as well as signals indicating emissions. The Alert Level remained at .

Sheveluch

During 17-24 April the lava dome extrusion onto Sheveluch’s N flank was accompanied by incandescence, hot block avalanches, and fumerolic activity. A thermal anomaly was detected during 16-18 and 23 April; cloud cover obscured views on the other days. The aviation code remained at Orange.

Figure 1; http://fineartamerica.com/featured/halemaumau-by-moonlight-grant-kaye.html

Figure 2; http://news.yahoo.com/image-asia-pyroclastic-flows-erupt-mount-sinabung-121702289.html

Comparing Past and Present

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Over the last 12 months we have seen some amazing eruptions, felt the Earth shake on numerous occasions, and remembered some historic events. But was the active of 2014, both volcanically and seismically, more than any other year? I have read several spam articles recently, scare mongering that fracking has trebled earthquake numbers, God’s wrath has been shown by volcanic eruptions and even one drunken woman tried to tell me that Japans tectonic misfortune is due to the Pearl Harbor attack!

Lava field at Holuhraun, Iceland September 2nd 2014.

1. Lava field at Holuhraun, Iceland September 2nd 2014.

Now straight away I can assure you that karma or religious intervention has nothing to do with the science behind the mechanics of the planet beneath our feet. Fracking is up for debate and its effects on seismicity although even were proven the effects are still negligible. So has 2014 really been worse than previous?

Seismically

I found quiet a nice table to demonstrate this one courtesy of Wikipedia.

Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 2004–2014

  Magnitude Ranging

Between

 2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014
8.0–9.9 2 1 2 4 0 1 1 1 2 2 1
7.0–7.9 14 10 9 14 12 16 21 19 15 17 11
6.0–6.9 141 140 142 178 168 144 151 204 129 125 144
5.0–5.9 1515 1693 1712 2074 1768 1896 1963 2271 1412 1402 1577
4.0–4.9 10888 13918 12838 12080 12292 6805 10164 13303 10990 9795 14941
Total 12560 15762 14703 14350 14240 8862 12300 15798 12548 11341 16674

2014 actually had the lowest number of strong, magnitude 7 and above earthquakes then in the past 5 years. On the flip side of this we had many more lower magnitude  4-5.9 giving us the highest total of quakes in the past 10 years by about 900 earthquakes. 2009 actually is the strangest year on this list with a good 4000 less earth quakes of any magnitude than any other year. 2007 also stands out with an exceptional number of stronger earthquakes. It could be theorized that the greater release of stress and strain with in the crust during 2007 gave us a quiet period the following years. All though this is a very short time scale it does show that yearly variation is great.

625 people were killed in earthquakes last year with most of these during August 3rd’s Ludian County earthquake in China. 6 lost their lives in the strongest quake of the year in Iquique, Chile which was mg 8.2. Nicaragua and Papua New Guinea also had one fatality each. This is actually quiet low value with over 1500 loosing their lives the previous year or as high as nearly 300,000 in 2004!

Uplift caused by Mg 8.2 Chile Earthquake.

2. Uplift caused by Mg 8.2 Chile Earthquake.

Volcanically

2014 was a pretty explosive year with Sinabung kicking us off with a bang January 3rd as it has done this year. In February the same volcano killed 11 as people began to cross the exclusion zones to take a closer look after the pyrotechnics the month previous.

Bárðarbunga stole the show over the summer. The sleeping giant started a ‘will it, won’t it’ game months before any real activity started in August. Many feared we would see an Eyjafjallajökull 2010 style explosion that would disrupt air traffic at the height of the summer period. Earthqaukes then began to indicate magma was on the move through a dyke heading north-west from the main vent. New fears struck as experts wondered would we see devastation similar to Laki 1783. August 29th saw the start of a large fissure breaking the surface, although it has not reached the status of Laki, the eruption is still continuing today

3. San Miguel

3. San Miguel

 

The next lot a fatalities happened when Mount Ontake surprised all with a phreatic blast on September 27th. 57 lost their lives as hikers and tourists where making their way to a shrine on the mountains flank.

Fogo was the volcano to cause chaos in the final month of the year forcing thousands from their homes. Media coverage of this even has been so light on this event, I am unable to find precise news to if the eruption is ongoing. At December 23rd lava was still pouring from the Pico vent and destroying all in its path.

Obviously these are but a few of the hundreds of volcanoes rumbling through 2014. Others include; Colinma, Etna, Aire, Asonsan, Manam, Merapi, Popcatepetl, Shishaldin, Cleveland, Sabancaya, Zhupanovsky, Sheveluch, Santa Maria, Mayon, Dukono, Turrialba, Poas, Fuego, Ubinas, Tungurahua, Reventador, Pacaya, Karymsky, Kelut, Stromboli, San Miguel, Pavlof, Chirpoi and even all that does not cover them all!

But is this more than usual?

In terms of lava output, last year is definitely high up there as we saw several huge effusive eruptions(with Bárðarbunga probably producing more material than most others put together!). However in the grand scheme of things there were few other major events.

68 people lost their lives which is relatively high thinking that on average maybe one or two die yearly unless there are major volcanic events, but then when thinking like that 68 is actually extremely low.

If we were to pull out any year for increased volcanic activity, for me it would have to be the events of 1902. In a list compiled by Wikipedia* of the most deadly eruptions, although none of the top 5 occurred in 1902, 4 in the list of 40 that occurred did, meaning 10% of the most fatal eruptions occurred in the one year. Well over 40,000 were killed over these four eruptions.

4. Somber scene after Mount Pelee eruption May 8th 1902.

4. Somber scene after Mount Pelee eruption May 8th 1902.

Just over 30,000 of these deaths were caused by Mount Pelee, Martinque on May 8th. Just hours before, La Soufriere a few islands away on Saint Vincent killed 1680.

There will always be years there is more geologically activity than others. The Earth is like a living breathing organism; it is ever-changing and adapting, this is part of the reason predicting events can be tricky.  People always look to blame or find meaning behind tragedy, it’s a coping mechanism, but rarely leads to scientific truth.

Figure 1. http://mashable.com/2014/09/11/iceland-bardabunga-volcano-eruption-photos/

Table 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquakes_in_2014

Figure 2. http://www.sneakymag.com/life/the-sneakington-post-3/

Figure 3.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10541931/El-Salvador-begins-evacuations-due-to-volcano-eruption.html

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanic_eruptions_by_death_toll

Figure 4. http://www.explorevolcanoes.com/Martinique-caribbean-volcano.html

Sinabung

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One of Indonesia’s most active volcanoes blast back to life today with explosions and pyroclastic flows since early morning.

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Last year Sinabung was extremely active with notable activity in January, February and October. February 1st eruption left at least 16 dead after people began to enter exclusion zones after the previous months activity had seemed to cease.

The aviation code has been raised to red as an ash column currently looks to be towering over a newly formed lava dome. Another lava dome means the threat of another dome collapse, which tends to be one of the volcanoes most deadly tendencies.

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Most locals have not returned to their homes since last year’s activities and it is belived that Sinabung has indirectly killed 11 in recent months as disease spreads through cramped the temporary accommodation for the evacuated residents.

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As always I shall keep you posted as I believe this may be one to watch for 2015!